New NAR Report - Pending House Sales Decline in January

Really? We knew that already. But here's the report at CNBC.com.

This is hardly news (especially in Winnetka, Wilmette and Evanston.) Below I provide some statistics that bear out this "trend". In reality these kind of stories are "factoids" and ought to be treated as such. Unfortunately we watch the daily, weekly and monthly data and hype the heck out of them. With computers we can do it almost by the hour. With so much data we lose perspective, focus on minuscule movements and react (or panic as the case may be.)

But what do the data really tell us? The bigger concern is that with the drop in closed sales, inventories are building. A continued increase of inventory will put greater downward pressure on pricing. If you're a Seller, price to create value. If you're a buyer, know what value is today.

Here's an interesting idea: how many homes on the market have taken price reductions? Now that would be interesting. That would be a great indicator of commitment and intent. I'll post that analysis later this week. For the time being AND FOR PERSPECTIVE, here are the January home sales data for the LAST THREE YEARS -

More to come.

DS